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首頁> 外文會議>International Conference on Agro-Geoinformatics >What is statistical relationship between climatic factors changes and rice production at agro-subzone and nationwide levels during the period 1961–2040 based on remote sensing and GIS?
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What is statistical relationship between climatic factors changes and rice production at agro-subzone and nationwide levels during the period 1961–2040 based on remote sensing and GIS?

機譯:基于遙感和地理信息系統(tǒng),1961-2040年期間,在農(nóng)業(yè)分區(qū)和全國范圍內(nèi),氣候因素變化與水稻生產(chǎn)之間的統(tǒng)計關(guān)系是什么?

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Rice is one of the most important staple food crops in China. Climate change is a major contributing factor leading to uncertainty and variability in rice growth. In this paper, we applied linear correlation analysis and multiple regression analysis to analyze the relationships between compound annual rice yield growth rates derived from remote sensing and GIS and climate change rates of temperature, precipitation and sunshine duration for three decadal comparisons spanning the period of 1961-2040. Spatial scales were defined at the national and agro-subzone levels. Based on these results, we obtained the following conclusions: (1) individual climatic factors have different change characteristics over time, whereas the spatial heterogeneity of precipitation and temperature changes will influence policy options for ensuring food security; (2) individual climatic factors did not significantly influence rice yields at any spatial scale or for any temporal comparison; (3) a combination of temperature, precipitation and sunshine duration explained more than 90% of the changes in rice yields at the national and subzone levels of south and central China in the comparison between 1961-1990 and 2010-2020; (4) it is difficult to project rice yields changes using only the three climatic factors for the 2010-2040 period; and (5) the effects of the different climatic factors on rice yields are different at different spatial scales and for different decadal comparisons.
機譯:水稻是中國最重要的主食作物之一。氣候變化是導(dǎo)致水稻生長不確定和多變性的主要因素。本文運用線性相關(guān)分析和多元回歸分析,分析了1961年以來三個年代的比較,遙感和GIS得出的水稻復(fù)合年產(chǎn)量增長率與溫度,降水量和日照持續(xù)時間的氣候變化率之間的關(guān)系。 -2040??臻g規(guī)模是在國家和農(nóng)業(yè)分區(qū)水平上定義的。根據(jù)這些結(jié)果,我們得出以下結(jié)論:(1)各個氣候因素隨時間變化的特征不同,而降水和溫度變化的空間異質(zhì)性將影響確保糧食安全的政策選擇; (2)在任何空間尺度或任何時間上的比較中,個別氣候因素均未顯著影響水稻產(chǎn)量; (3)在1961-1990年與2010-2020年之間的比較中,溫度,降水和日照時間的綜合說明了華南和中部國家和分區(qū)水平的水稻產(chǎn)量變化的90%以上; (4)僅使用三個氣候因素來預(yù)測2010-2040年期間的水稻產(chǎn)量變化是困難的; (5)在不同的空間尺度和年代際比較中,不同的氣候因素對水稻產(chǎn)量的影響是不同的。

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