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首頁> 外文學(xué)位 >An assessment of future Caribbean climate change using 'business as usual' scenario by coupling GCM data and RAMS.
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An assessment of future Caribbean climate change using 'business as usual' scenario by coupling GCM data and RAMS.

機譯：通過結(jié)合GCM數(shù)據(jù)和RAMS，使用“一切照舊”方案評估未來的加勒比氣候變化。

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The Caribbean rainfall season has a bimodal nature, which is divided in the Early Rainfall Season (ERS) and Late Rainfall Season (LRS). To carry out the long-term average conditions Caribbean season analysis, the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data, the Xie-Arkin precipitation and the Reynolds-Smith Sea Surface Temperature (SST) observed data were used. The Parallel Climate Model (PCM) is evaluated to determine its ability to predict the Caribbean climatology. As a result, PCM under predicts the SSTs, which along a cold advection cause a lower rain production than the observed climatology. The future Caribbean climatological condition simulated by PCM shows a future warming of up to -1°C along with an increase of the rain production during the Caribbean seasons. RAMS was coupled with PCM to asses the dynamical downscale technique. The PCM data used in RAMS as initial conditions has very low SSTs and a stable atmosphere cutting off the vertical convection. To avoid the deviations generated by the PCM output when it is used in RAMS, the 1998 observed data plus the PCM atmospheric variables difference between the years 2048 and 1998 is taken as initial conditions to RAMS. The synoptic scale simulated by RAMS shows a close behavior to the simulated by PCM during the dry season and LRS, while the mesoscale rainfall is strongly influenced by the land dry areas computed in the parent grid.
機譯：加勒比雨季具有雙峰性質(zhì)，分為早期降雨季（ERS）和晚期降雨季（LRS）。為了進行加勒比海季節(jié)的長期平均狀況分析，使用了國家環(huán)境預(yù)測中心（NCEP）重新分析數(shù)據(jù)，謝-阿金降水量和雷諾-史密斯海表溫度（SST）觀測數(shù)據(jù)。對平行氣候模型（PCM）進行評估，以確定其預(yù)測加勒比氣候的能力。結(jié)果，PCM預(yù)測了SST，SST沿冷對流導(dǎo)致的降雨產(chǎn)生量低于所觀測的氣候。 PCM模擬的未來加勒比氣候條件表明，隨著加勒比季節(jié)的降雨增加，未來的升溫將達到-1°C。 RAMS與PCM耦合以評估動態(tài)縮減技術(shù)。 RAMS中用作初始條件的PCM數(shù)據(jù)具有非常低的SST，并且穩(wěn)定的大氣層切斷了垂直對流。為了避免在RAMS中使用PCM輸出時產(chǎn)生的偏差，將1998年的觀測數(shù)據(jù)加上2048年和1998年之間的PCM大氣變量差異作為RAMS的初始條件。在干旱季節(jié)和LRS期間，RAMS模擬的天氣尺度與PCM模擬表現(xiàn)出接近的行為，而中尺度降水受到母網(wǎng)格中計算的陸地干燥面積的強烈影響。

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