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首頁> 外文學(xué)位 >Evaluating sustainability of endangered species via simulation: A case study of the Attwater's prairie chicken (Tympanuchus cupido attwateri).
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Evaluating sustainability of endangered species via simulation: A case study of the Attwater's prairie chicken (Tympanuchus cupido attwateri).

機譯：通過模擬評估瀕危物種的可持續(xù)性：以Attwater的草原雞（Tympanuchus cupido attwateri）為例。

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摘要

Once abundant in the Texas and Louisiana coastal prairie, currently the Attwater's Prairie Chicken (Tympanuchus cupido attwateri, APC) is close to extinction. Efforts to increase the size of the remaining populations at the Attwater Prairie Chicken National Wildlife Refuge (APCNWR) and the Galveston Bay Prairie Preserve (GBPP) with releases of captive-reared individuals are part of the APC captive-breeding initiative. However, after a decade of yearly releases, the populations are not reaching viable sizes.;I analyzed post-release survival data of individuals released at the APCNWR from 1996 to 2005. Results suggest that age at release or date of release had little influence on survival of captive-breed APC. At two weeks post-release, survival estimates (SE) were 0.76 (0.03) for females and 0.82 (0.04) for males. Approximately 50% of the females and 33% of the males died within the first 60 days post-release. Survivorship during the breeding season showed that male survival (0.36) was higher than female survival (0.23). Survivorship from the median release date to beginning of the breeding season was 52% for males and 39% for females. Mean female survival was 155 days, while median survival was 94 days. For males, mean survival was 135 days and the median was 81 days.;Results from a stochastic simulation model, which was developed based on the survival analysis of APC on the APCNWR, confirmed that releasing individuals closer to the beginning of the breeding season and sex ratio at release had little effect on population growth. Regardless of the number of individuals released annually, population sizes immediately prior to the release dates were only 11--12% of the population sizes immediately after the release dates. At current mortality rates, simulated APC populations could not sustain themselves even if reproductive parameters were increased to the maximum rates reported for APC, or to the maximum rates reported for the closely related Greater prairie chicken. Based on these results, the APC may face extinction within the next decade unless conservation efforts succeed on increasing reproductive success and greatly reducing mortality rates.
機譯：曾經(jīng)在得克薩斯州和路易斯安那州沿海草原盛產(chǎn)的阿特沃特的草原雞（Tympanuchus cupido attwateri，APC）已接近滅絕。 APC圈養(yǎng)繁殖計劃的一部分是努力增加Attwater草原雞國家野生動物保護區(qū)（APCNWR）和加爾維斯頓灣草原保護區(qū)（GBPP）的數(shù)量，并釋放圈養(yǎng)的個體。但是，在經(jīng)過十年的年度發(fā)布之后，這些種群仍未達到可行的規(guī)模。；我分析了1996年至2005年在APCNWR上發(fā)布的個人的發(fā)布后生存數(shù)據(jù)。結(jié)果表明，發(fā)布時的年齡或發(fā)布日期對圈養(yǎng)APC的存活率。釋放后兩周，女性的生存估計（SE）為0.76（0.03），男性為0.82（0.04）。大約50％的雌性和33％的雄性在釋放后的前60天內(nèi)死亡。繁殖季節(jié)的存活率表明，男性存活率（0.36）高于女性存活率（0.23）。從中位釋放日期到繁殖季節(jié)開始的生存期，男性為52％，女性為39％。女性平均生存期為155天，中位生存期為94天。對于雄性，平均存活時間為135天，中位數(shù)為81天。；基于APC在APCNWR上的存活分析而建立的隨機模擬模型的結(jié)果，證實了在繁殖季節(jié)開始之前釋放個體的可能性很大。性別比例對人口增長影響不大。無論每年釋放多少個人，緊接發(fā)布日期之前的人口規(guī)模僅為緊隨發(fā)布日期之后的人口規(guī)模的11--12％。在目前的死亡率下，即使生殖參數(shù)增加到APC報告的最大比率或密切相關(guān)的大草原土雞報告的最大比率，模擬的APC種群也無法維系。根據(jù)這些結(jié)果，除非保護工作能夠成功地提高繁殖成功率并大大降低死亡率，否則APC可能在未來十年內(nèi)面臨滅絕的危險。

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  • 作者

    Defex Cuervo, Tulia I.;

  • 作者單位

    Texas A&M University.;

  • 授予單位 Texas A&M University.;
  • 學(xué)科 Biology Ecology.;Agriculture Forestry and Wildlife.
  • 學(xué)位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2008
  • 頁碼 94 p.
  • 總頁數(shù) 94
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文語種 eng
  • 中圖分類
  • 關(guān)鍵詞

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