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首頁> 外文學位 >A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS BETWEEN THE FINANCIAL INSTABILITY HYPOTHESIS AND THE MONETARY THEORY OF DEEP DEPRESSIONS FOR THE INTERWAR PERIOD: A NON-NESTED TEST OF HYPOTHESIS (BUSINESS CYCLES, ECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS, DEBT DEFLATION).
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A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS BETWEEN THE FINANCIAL INSTABILITY HYPOTHESIS AND THE MONETARY THEORY OF DEEP DEPRESSIONS FOR THE INTERWAR PERIOD: A NON-NESTED TEST OF HYPOTHESIS (BUSINESS CYCLES, ECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS, DEBT DEFLATION).

機譯：跨時期的金融不穩(wěn)定性假說與深度抑郁的貨幣理論之間的比較分析：假想的無嵌套檢驗（業(yè)務周期，經濟波動，債務變動）。

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The hypothesis that is tested in this study is: does the financial instability hypothesis contain sufficient information to reject the Friedman-Schwartz monetary model? Or, does the Friedman-Schwartz monetary model contain sufficient information to reject the financial instability model? This test of hypothesis is made using Pesaran's non-nested N(,1) test statistic.;Since Minsky does not give an explicit model detailing how expectations are formed, it is difficult to test the financial instability model. Thus, a learning model of expectation is developed in Chapter 5. In Chapter 6 this learning model is used as the analytic guide to interpret the three major depressions of the interwar period. Chapter 7 presents the Friedman-Schwartz story of the interwar period.;In Chapter 8 the financial instability hypothesis and the monetary theory of deep depression are give econometric form. The financial instability hypothesis is specified as a recursive system of simultaneous equations. The variables, specified for this model are of three types: expected expenditure flow variables, desired expenditure flow variables, and a confidence index. The monetary model is specified as a single equation whose sole explanatory variable is a distributed lag money variable.;The estimation results are presented in Chapter 9. The non-nested tests of hypothesis are discussed in Chapter 10. In addition to performing these tests on the estimated models of Chapter 9, non-nested tests are also made comparing simpler versions of each theoretical model. In total, eight non-nested tests of hypothesis are performed.;Each theoretical model is described in Chapter 2. Chapter 3 is a descriptive discourse of those policy reforms Minsky has so widely advocated. Chapter 4 is a critique of the financial instability hypothesis.
機譯：本研究中檢驗的假設是：金融不穩(wěn)定假設是否包含足夠的信息來拒絕Friedman-Schwartz貨幣模型？或者，弗里德曼·施瓦茨（Friedman-Schwartz）貨幣模型是否包含足夠的信息來拒絕金融不穩(wěn)定模型？該假設檢驗是使用Pesaran的非嵌套N（，1）檢驗統(tǒng)計量進行的。由于Minsky沒有給出明確描述期望形成方式的明確模型，因此很難檢驗金融不穩(wěn)定模型。因此，在第5章中開發(fā)了期望學習模型。在第6章中，該學習模型用作分析指南，以解釋兩次戰(zhàn)爭之間的三個主要蕭條時期。第七章介紹了兩次世界大戰(zhàn)之間弗里德曼-施瓦茨的故事。第八章中，金融不穩(wěn)定假說和深度蕭條的貨幣理論采用計量經濟學形式。金融不穩(wěn)定性假設被指定為聯(lián)立方程的遞歸系統(tǒng)。為此模型指定的變量分為三種類型：預期支出流變量，預期支出流變量和置信度指數(shù)。貨幣模型被指定為一個方程，其唯一的解釋變量是分布的滯后貨幣變量。;估計結果在第9章中給出。假設的非嵌套檢驗在第10章中討論。還比較了每個理論模型的簡單版本，進行了第9章的估計模型，非嵌套測試。總共進行了8個假設的非嵌套檢驗。；每個理論模型在第2章中進行了描述。第3章是明斯基廣泛倡導的那些政策改革的描述性論述。第四章對金融不穩(wěn)定假說進行了批判。

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  • 作者

    GOMEZ, RICHARD JAMES.;

  • 作者單位

    University of California, Davis.;

  • 授予單位 University of California, Davis.;
  • 學科 Economic theory.
  • 學位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 1986
  • 頁碼 277 p.
  • 總頁數(shù) 277
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文語種 eng
  • 中圖分類
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