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A methodological framework for probabilistic evaluation of financial viability of transportation infrastructure under Public Private Partnerships.

機(jī)譯：在公私合營(yíng)關(guān)系下概率評(píng)估運(yùn)輸基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施財(cái)務(wù)可行性的方法框架。

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摘要

This research proposes a methodological framework for the probabilistic evaluation of the financial viability of transportation infrastructure projects procured as Public Private Partnerships (PPPs). In doing so a methodological approach is undertaken. First, this research investigates the various risks of PPP projects, in particular the investment risk in terms of both the depth and its corresponding methods of evaluation, yielding a new method for more accurate estimation. Second, it examines the multiple facets of financial viability, stemming from the different meaning that it has for the various project stakeholders, i.e., the public authority, the lenders and the equity investors. From this study a connection between the financial viability and the investment risk is established for the purpose of using the latter for the assessment of the former. Based on this established connection, this research proposes a general methodological framework that can be used for the probabilistic evaluation of the financial viability of other types of revenue-generating transportation infrastructure projects, procured as PPPs. This framework proposes the evaluation of the financial viability through the estimation of the project's investment risk, using available numerical and/or analytical approximation techniques such as the Method of Moments. The general methodological framework is then utilized for the specific case of highway toll-road concession projects, where detailed and specific quantitative models are devised for the determination of the costs and revenues of these projects. Additionally, and by capitalizing on similar models found elsewhere in the literature, this dissertation also proposes a process to increase the accuracy of the Maintenance and Rehabilitation cost estimates, borrowing concepts stemming from reliability and stochastic processes. The findings of this research are expected to help all project stakeholders with their evaluation of whether or not a project under consideration is capable of achieving their respective financial targets. The proposed methodology can be used as a quantitative tool for project evaluation and investment appraisal by all project stakeholders. However, as in any decision support methodology, the purpose of the proposed framework is not to replace decision makers but to help them make better and informed decisions.
機(jī)譯：這項(xiàng)研究提出了一種方法框架，用于概率評(píng)估作為公共私人合作伙伴關(guān)系（PPP）采購(gòu)的運(yùn)輸基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施項(xiàng)目的財(cái)務(wù)可行性。為此，采取了一種方法論方法。首先，本研究從深度和相應(yīng)的評(píng)估方法兩方面對(duì)PPP項(xiàng)目的各種風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行了研究，尤其是投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，從而為更準(zhǔn)確的估算提供了一種新方法。其次，它考察了財(cái)務(wù)可行性的多個(gè)方面，因?yàn)樗鼘?duì)于各個(gè)項(xiàng)目利益相關(guān)者（即公共權(quán)力機(jī)構(gòu)，貸方和股權(quán)投資者）具有不同的含義。通過(guò)這項(xiàng)研究，建立了財(cái)務(wù)可行性和投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)之間的聯(lián)系，目的是將后者用于評(píng)估前者?；谶@種已建立的聯(lián)系，本研究提出了一個(gè)通用的方法框架，該框架可用于概率評(píng)估作為購(gòu)買力平價(jià)購(gòu)買的其他類型的創(chuàng)收運(yùn)輸基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施項(xiàng)目的財(cái)務(wù)可行性。該框架建議使用可用的數(shù)值和/或分析近似技術(shù)（例如，矩量法）通過(guò)估算項(xiàng)目的投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)來(lái)評(píng)估財(cái)務(wù)可行性。然后，將通用方法框架用于高速公路收費(fèi)公路特許權(quán)項(xiàng)目的特定案例，在此設(shè)計(jì)詳細(xì)和特定的量化模型，以確定這些項(xiàng)目的成本和收入。此外，通過(guò)利用文獻(xiàn)中其他地方的相似模型，本論文還提出了一種方法來(lái)提高維護(hù)和修復(fù)成本估算的準(zhǔn)確性，它借鑒了可靠性和隨機(jī)性過(guò)程中的概念。預(yù)期這項(xiàng)研究的結(jié)果將幫助所有項(xiàng)目涉眾評(píng)估正在考慮的項(xiàng)目是否能夠?qū)崿F(xiàn)其各自的財(cái)務(wù)目標(biāo)。提議的方法可以用作所有項(xiàng)目涉眾進(jìn)行項(xiàng)目評(píng)估和投資評(píng)估的定量工具。但是，與任何決策支持方法一樣，擬議框架的目的不是取代決策者，而是幫助他們做出更好，更明智的決策。

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  • 作者

    Pantelias, Aristeidis.;

  • 作者單位

    The University of Texas at Austin.;

  • 授予單位 The University of Texas at Austin.;
  • 學(xué)科 Engineering Civil.;Transportation.
  • 學(xué)位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2009
  • 頁(yè)碼 154 p.
  • 總頁(yè)數(shù) 154
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文語(yǔ)種 eng
  • 中圖分類 建筑科學(xué);綜合運(yùn)輸;
  • 關(guān)鍵詞

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