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Traffic concurrency management through delay and safety mitigations.

機(jī)譯：通過延遲和安全緩解來進(jìn)行流量并發(fā)管理。

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Travelers experience different transportation-related problems on roadways ranging from congestion, delay, and crashes, which are partially due to growing background traffic and traffic generated by new developments. With regards to congestion, metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs) pursue a variety of plans for mitigating congestion. These plans include, amongst other measures, imposing impact fees. The current research evaluates how delay and safety can be incorporated in the mitigation process as special impact fees. This study also evaluates traffic projection methodologies used in traffic impact studies. Adhering to the importance of accurate traffic projection, this study introduces a simplistic traffic projection methodology for small-scale projection utilizing three parameters logistic function as a forecasting tool. Three parameters logistic function produced more accurate future traffic prediction compared to other functions.; A delay mitigation fee resulting from increases in travel time is also analyzed in this research. In regular traffic flow, posted speed limit is the base of measuring travel time within the segment of the road. The economic concept of congestion pricing is used to evaluate the impact of this travel time delay per unit trip. If the relationship between the increase in time and trip is known, then the developer can be charged for the costs of time delays for travelers by using that relationship. The congestion pricing approach determines the average and marginal effect of the travel time. With the known values of time, vehicle occupancy, and number of travel days per year, the extra cost per trip caused by additional trips is estimated. This cost becomes part of the mitigation fee that the developer incurs as a result of travel time delays for the travelers due to the development project. Using the Bureau of Public Road (BPR) travel time function and parameters found in 2000 HCM (Highway Capacity Manual), the average and marginal travel times were determined. The value of time was taken as {dollar}7.50 per hour after reviewing different publications, which relate it to minimum wage. The vehicle occupancy is assumed as 1.2 persons per vehicle. Other assumptions include 261 working days per year and 4 percent rate of return. The total delay impact fee will depend on the number of years needed for the development to have effect. Since the developer is charged a road impact fee due to constructions cost for the road improvement, the delay mitigation fee should be credited to the road impact fee to avoid double charging the developer.; As an approach to incorporate safety into mitigation fees, the study developed a crash prediction model in which all factors significantly influencing crash occurrences are considered and modeled. Negative binomial (NB) is selected as the best crash modeling distribution among other generalized linear models. The developed safety component of the mitigation fee equation considers scenarios in which the proposed new development is expected to increase crash frequency. The mitigation fee equation is designed to incorporate some roadway features and traffic characteristics generated by the new development that influence crash occurrence. Crash reduction factors are introduced and incorporated in the safety mitigation fees equation. The difference between crash frequency before and after the development is multiplied by the crash cost then divided by the trips to obtain crash cost per trip. Crash cost is taken as {dollar}28,000/crash based on literature review. To avoid double charging the developer, either the road impact fee is applied as a credit to the delay mitigation fee or vice versa. In summary, this study achieved and contributed the following to researchers and practitioners: (1) Developed logistic function as a simplified approach for traffic projection; (2) Developed crash model for crash prediction; (3) Developed safety mitigation fee equation utilizing the
機(jī)譯：旅行者在道路上會遇到各種與交通相關(guān)的問題，包括交通擁堵，延誤和撞車，部分原因是由于背景交通量的增長和新開發(fā)項(xiàng)目帶來的交通量。關(guān)于擁堵，大城市規(guī)劃組織（MPO）采取了各種緩解擁堵的計(jì)劃。這些計(jì)劃除其他措施外還包括征收影響費(fèi)。當(dāng)前的研究評估了如何將延誤和安全作為特殊影響費(fèi)納入緩解過程中。這項(xiàng)研究還評估了交通影響研究中使用的交通預(yù)測方法。堅(jiān)持準(zhǔn)確的交通預(yù)測的重要性，本研究介紹了一種使用三參數(shù)邏輯函數(shù)作為預(yù)測工具的用于小規(guī)模投影的簡化交通投影方法。與其他功能相比，三個(gè)參數(shù)的邏輯函數(shù)可產(chǎn)生更準(zhǔn)確的未來流量預(yù)測。這項(xiàng)研究還分析了因旅行時(shí)間增加而產(chǎn)生的延誤緩解費(fèi)。在正常的交通流量中，發(fā)布的速度限制是衡量路段內(nèi)行駛時(shí)間的基礎(chǔ)。擁擠定價(jià)的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)概念用于評估此單位旅行行程時(shí)間延遲的影響。如果知道時(shí)間和旅行增加之間的關(guān)系，則可以通過使用該關(guān)系向開發(fā)人員收取旅行者延誤的費(fèi)用。擁擠定價(jià)方法決定了出行時(shí)間的平均和邊際影響。利用時(shí)間，車輛占用率和每年的旅行天數(shù)的已知值，可以估算由額外旅行引起的每次旅行的額外費(fèi)用。由于開發(fā)項(xiàng)目導(dǎo)致旅行者的出行時(shí)間延遲，這筆費(fèi)用已成為開發(fā)者產(chǎn)生的緩解費(fèi)用的一部分。使用公共道路局（BPR）行駛時(shí)間功能和2000 HCM（高速公路通行能力手冊）中的參數(shù)，確定了平均和邊際行駛時(shí)間。在審查了與最低工資相關(guān)的各種出版物之后，時(shí)間的價(jià)值為每小時(shí)7.50美元。假設(shè)車輛占用為每輛車1.2人。其他假設(shè)包括每年261個(gè)工作日和4％的回報(bào)率。總的延遲影響費(fèi)將取決于開發(fā)生效所需的年數(shù)。由于開發(fā)商因道路修improvement的建設(shè)成本而收取道路影響費(fèi)，因此應(yīng)將延緩緩解費(fèi)計(jì)入道路影響費(fèi)中，以避免對開發(fā)商產(chǎn)生雙重費(fèi)用。作為將安全納入緩解費(fèi)用中的一種方法，該研究開發(fā)了碰撞預(yù)測模型，其中考慮并建模了影響碰撞事故的所有重要因素。在其他廣義線性模型中，負(fù)二項(xiàng)式（NB）被選為最佳碰撞模型分布。緩解費(fèi)用公式中已開發(fā)的安全組件考慮了擬議的新開發(fā)預(yù)計(jì)會增加撞車頻率的場景。緩解費(fèi)用等式的設(shè)計(jì)目的是將新開發(fā)產(chǎn)生的影響事故發(fā)生的某些道路特征和交通特征納入其中。引入了減少碰撞的因素，并將其納入安全緩解費(fèi)用公式中。開發(fā)前后的碰撞頻率之差乘以碰撞成本，然后除以行程，即可得出每次行程的碰撞成本。根據(jù)文獻(xiàn)回顧，事故成本為每事故$ 28,000。為避免向開發(fā)商收取雙倍費(fèi)用，可將道路影響費(fèi)作為抵免額度計(jì)入延誤緩解費(fèi)中，反之亦然?？偠灾?，這項(xiàng)研究為研究人員和從業(yè)人員帶來了以下貢獻(xiàn)：（1）開發(fā)了物流功能，作為交通預(yù)測的簡化方法； （2）開發(fā)了用于碰撞預(yù)測的碰撞模型； （3）利用

著錄項(xiàng)

  • 作者

    Chimba, Deo.;

  • 作者單位

    University of Miami.;

  • 授予單位 University of Miami.;
  • 學(xué)科 Engineering Civil.; Transportation.
  • 學(xué)位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2008
  • 頁碼 187 p.
  • 總頁數(shù) 187
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文語種 eng
  • 中圖分類 建筑科學(xué);綜合運(yùn)輸;
  • 關(guān)鍵詞

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