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首頁(yè)> 美國(guó)衛(wèi)生研究院文獻(xiàn)>Heliyon >Future land cover change scenarios in South African grasslands – implications of altered biophysical drivers on land management
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Future land cover change scenarios in South African grasslands – implications of altered biophysical drivers on land management

機(jī)譯：南非草原未來(lái)的土地覆蓋變化情景–生物物理驅(qū)動(dòng)力變化對(duì)土地管理的影響

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Future land cover changes may result in adjustments to biophysical drivers impacting on net ecosystem carbon exchange (NEE), catchment water use through evapotranspiration (ET), and the surface energy balance through a change in albedo. The Land Change Modeller (Idrisi Terrset 18.08) and land cover for 2000 and 2014 are used to create a future scenario of land cover for two catchment with different land management systems in the Eastern Cape Province for the year 2030. In the S50E catchment, a dualistic farming system, the trend shows that grasslands represented 57% of the total catchment area in 2014 decreasing to 52% by 2030 with losses likely to favour a gain in woody plants and cultivated land. In T35B, a commercial system, persistence of grasslands is modelled with approximately 80% coverage in both years, representing a more stable system. Finally, for S50E, NEE and ET will increase under this land cover change scenario leading to increased carbon sequestration but less water availability and corresponding surface temperature increases. This implies that rehabilitation and land management initiatives should be targeted in catchments under a dualistic farming system, rather than those which are predominantly commercial systems.
機(jī)譯：未來(lái)土地覆蓋的變化可能會(huì)導(dǎo)致對(duì)生物物理驅(qū)動(dòng)因素的調(diào)整，從而影響凈生態(tài)系統(tǒng)碳交換（NEE），通過(guò)蒸散量（ET）的集水量以及反照率變化的表面能平衡。土地變化模型（Idrisi Terrset 18.08）和2000年和2014年的土地覆蓋量用于為2030年?yáng)|開(kāi)普省兩個(gè)具有不同土地管理系統(tǒng)的流域創(chuàng)建未來(lái)的土地覆蓋情景。在S50E流域，趨勢(shì)顯示，在二元耕作制度下，到2014年，草原占集水區(qū)總面積的57％，到2030年將減少到52％。在T35B（一種商業(yè)系統(tǒng)）中，對(duì)草地的持久性進(jìn)行了建模，兩年覆蓋率約為80％，代表了一個(gè)更穩(wěn)定的系統(tǒng)。最后，對(duì)于S50E，在這種土地覆被變化情景下，NEE和ET將增加，導(dǎo)致固碳增加，但可用水量減少，相應(yīng)地表溫度升高。這意味著恢復(fù)和土地管理倡議應(yīng)針對(duì)二元農(nóng)業(yè)體制下的集水區(qū)，而不是那些主要為商業(yè)系統(tǒng)的集水區(qū)。

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