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首頁> 美國衛(wèi)生研究院文獻(xiàn)>BMC Veterinary Research >The performance of approximations of farm contiguity compared to contiguity defined using detailed geographical information in two sample areas in Scotland: implications for foot-and-mouth disease modelling
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The performance of approximations of farm contiguity compared to contiguity defined using detailed geographical information in two sample areas in Scotland: implications for foot-and-mouth disease modelling

機(jī)譯：與在蘇格蘭的兩個樣本區(qū)域中使用詳細(xì)的地理信息定義的鄰接關(guān)系相比農(nóng)場鄰接關(guān)系的近似性能：對口蹄疫建模的影響

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BackgroundWhen modelling infectious diseases, accurately capturing the pattern of dissemination through space is key to providing optimal recommendations for control. Mathematical models of disease spread in livestock, such as for foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), have done this by incorporating a transmission kernel which describes the decay in transmission rate with increasing Euclidean distance from an infected premises (IP). However, this assumes a homogenous landscape, and is based on the distance between point locations of farms. Indeed, underlying the spatial pattern of spread are the contact networks involved in transmission. Accordingly, area-weighted tessellation around farm point locations has been used to approximate field-contiguity and simulate the effect of contiguous premises (CP) culling for FMD. Here, geographic data were used to determine contiguity based on distance between premises’ fields and presence of landscape features for two sample areas in Scotland. Sensitivity, positive predictive value, and the True Skill Statistic (TSS) were calculated to determine how point distance measures and area-weighted tessellation compared to the ‘gold standard’ of the map-based measures in identifying CPs. In addition, the mean degree and density of the different contact networks were calculated.
機(jī)譯：背景技術(shù)在對傳染病建模時，準(zhǔn)確捕捉通過空間傳播的模式是提供最佳控制建議的關(guān)鍵。在牲畜中傳播疾病的數(shù)學(xué)模型，例如口蹄疫（FMD），通過合并一個傳輸核來完成，該傳輸核描述了隨著從感染場所（IP）到歐幾里得距離的增加，傳輸速率的衰減。但是，這是假設(shè)景觀是同質(zhì)的，并且基于農(nóng)場的點(diǎn)位置之間的距離。實際上，傳播的空間網(wǎng)絡(luò)是傳播所涉及的聯(lián)系網(wǎng)絡(luò)的基礎(chǔ)。因此，農(nóng)場點(diǎn)位置周圍的區(qū)域加權(quán)鑲嵌已被用于近似田間連續(xù)性，并模擬了針對FMD的連續(xù)前提（CP）剔除的效果。在這里，地理數(shù)據(jù)用于根據(jù)房屋場地之間的距離和蘇格蘭兩個樣本區(qū)域的景觀特征存在來確定連續(xù)性。計算敏感度，正預(yù)測值和真實技能統(tǒng)計（TSS），以確定在確定CP時，與基于地圖的測量的“黃金標(biāo)準(zhǔn)”相比，點(diǎn)距離測量和區(qū)域加權(quán)鑲嵌細(xì)分的方式。另外，計算了不同接觸網(wǎng)絡(luò)的平均程度和密度。

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