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Correlated Increase of High Ocean Waves and Winds in the Ice-Free Waters of the Arctic Ocean

機(jī)譯：北冰洋無冰水域中高海浪和風(fēng)的相關(guān)增加

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摘要

The long-term trend of extreme ocean waves in the emerging ice-free waters of the summer Arctic is studied using ERA-Interim wave reanalysis, with validation by two drifting wave buoys deployed in summer 2016. The 38-year-long reanalysis dataset reveals an increase in the expected largest significant wave height from 2.3 m to 3.1 m in the ice-free water from the Laptev to the Beaufort Seas during October. The trend is highly correlated with the expected increase in highest wind speed from 12.0 m/s to 14.2 m/s over the ice-free ocean, and less so with the extent of the ice-free water. Since the storms in this area did not strengthen throughout the analysis period, the increase in the expected largest significant wave height follows from the enhanced probability of storms in ice-free waters, which is pertinent to the estimation of extreme sea conditions along the Northern Sea Route.
機(jī)譯：利用ERA-臨時(shí)波再分析技術(shù)，研究了北極夏季夏季無冰水域中極端海浪的長(zhǎng)期趨勢(shì)，并通過2016年夏季部署的兩個(gè)漂流浮標(biāo)進(jìn)行了驗(yàn)證。這一長(zhǎng)達(dá)38年的再分析數(shù)據(jù)集揭示了從Laptev到Beaufort Seas的無冰水中預(yù)期最大最大波高從2.3μm增加到3.1μm。這種趨勢(shì)與預(yù)計(jì)的無冰海洋最高風(fēng)速從12.0 m / s增加到14.2 m / s高度相關(guān)，而與無冰水量的相關(guān)性則較小。由于該地區(qū)的風(fēng)暴在整個(gè)分析期間并未加強(qiáng)，因此預(yù)期最大最大波高的增加歸因于無冰水域中風(fēng)暴的可能性增加，這與估計(jì)北海沿岸極端海況有關(guān)路線。

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