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Risk-time charts: A framework to measure the time variation of earthquake disaster risk.

機(jī)譯：風(fēng)險(xiǎn)時(shí)間圖：衡量地震災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)時(shí)間變化的框架。

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Global urbanization accentuates the problem of planning for the future to ensure sustainable development. Large urban agglomerations represent concentrated areas in terms of population and economy and face potential risk due to natural disasters like earthquakes. This risk is rapidly changing with time due to changing location, exposure and vulnerability. This study develops the framework of Risk-Time Charts (RTCs) to portray variation of risk with time and forecast future urban earthquake disaster risk relative to current risk. The study attempts to determine the factors that change most rapidly with time and tries to identify the underlying mechanisms responsible for the change.; Conceptually, RTCs view the city as a system composed of sub-systems, interacting and changing over time. Two different perspectives---macroscopic and microscopic---are adopted in portraying the dynamic nature of urban earthquake disaster risk. The macroscopic perspective tries to assess the risk of earthquake disaster by taking into account the economic, social, political, and cultural context of earthquake hazard event and uses the Earthquake Disaster Risk Index to measure urban earthquake disaster risk by combining different macroscopic variables into a single index. The microscopic perspective evaluates the performance of each of the region's sectors---residential, commercial and government---by combining scenario loss data and recovery information into a Performance Index.; Using both perspectives, RTCs are developed for Los Angeles for the time-period 1990 to 2020. Sensitivity analysis is done to determine the effects of data quality on the confidence in the final results. Risk-reduction measures are simulated to determine their effects on the overall risk. The macroscopic perspective suggests that urbanization and increased economic interdependence cause the risk for Los Angeles to increase. The microscopic perspective indicates that risk is increasing for each of the sectors as well as the region as a whole in the future. The government experiences the largest increase in risk and is responsible for this situation. A mix of engineering and non-engineering risk-reduction measures could significantly decrease this risk. The results of the case study can be qualitatively extended to urban regions worldwide that have similar trends in urban growth and productivity.
機(jī)譯：全球城市化加劇了為確?？沙掷m(xù)發(fā)展而對(duì)未來(lái)進(jìn)行規(guī)劃的問(wèn)題。大型城市群代表著人口和經(jīng)濟(jì)的集中區(qū)域，并且由于地震等自然災(zāi)害而面臨潛在的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。由于位置，暴露和脆弱性的變化，這種風(fēng)險(xiǎn)隨著時(shí)間而迅速變化。這項(xiàng)研究開(kāi)發(fā)了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)時(shí)間圖表（RTC）框架，以描繪風(fēng)險(xiǎn)隨時(shí)間的變化并預(yù)測(cè)相對(duì)于當(dāng)前風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的未來(lái)城市地震災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。該研究試圖確定隨時(shí)間變化最快的因素，并試圖確定引起變化的潛在機(jī)制。從概念上講，RTC將城市視為由子系統(tǒng)組成的系統(tǒng)，隨著時(shí)間的流逝而相互作用和變化。描繪城市地震災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的動(dòng)態(tài)性質(zhì)采用了兩種不同的視角-宏觀和微觀。宏觀角度試圖通過(guò)考慮地震災(zāi)害事件的經(jīng)濟(jì)，社會(huì)，政治和文化背景來(lái)評(píng)估地震災(zāi)害的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，并通過(guò)將不同的宏觀變量組合為一個(gè)變量，使用地震災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指數(shù)來(lái)衡量城市地震災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指數(shù)。微觀視角通過(guò)將情景損失數(shù)據(jù)和恢復(fù)信息結(jié)合到績(jī)效指數(shù)中來(lái)評(píng)估該地區(qū)每個(gè)部門(mén)的績(jī)效（住宅，商業(yè)和政府）。基于這兩種觀點(diǎn)，RTC在1990年至2020年期間為洛杉磯開(kāi)發(fā)。進(jìn)行了敏感性分析，以確定數(shù)據(jù)質(zhì)量對(duì)最終結(jié)果可信度的影響。模擬降低風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的措施，以確定它們對(duì)總體風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的影響。宏觀角度表明，城市化和經(jīng)濟(jì)相互依存度增加導(dǎo)致洛杉磯風(fēng)險(xiǎn)增加。微觀角度表明，未來(lái)每個(gè)部門(mén)以及整個(gè)區(qū)域的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)正在增加。政府面臨的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)增加最大，應(yīng)對(duì)這種情況負(fù)責(zé)。工程和非工程風(fēng)險(xiǎn)降低措施的組合可能會(huì)大大降低這種風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。案例研究的結(jié)果可以定性地?cái)U(kuò)展到世界范圍內(nèi)城市增長(zhǎng)和生產(chǎn)力趨勢(shì)相似的城市地區(qū)。

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