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Risk assessment for highway transportation systems.

機譯：公路運輸系統(tǒng)的風險評估。

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This dissertation presents a risk assessment methodology developed for lifeline systems to serve as a tool in the decision process for: (i) retrofitting of critical structures in the system as a means of pre-disaster mitigation, (ii) pre-disaster emergency response planning, and (iii) emergency response operations. The objective is to assist in such decisions for minimizing life and property loss due to damage from natural or man-made hazards.; The methodology is based on vulnerability and importance assessment of the components in the system. Hazard analysis, structural classification schemes, and fragility analysis are employed to evaluate the vulnerability of each component. The importance of a component is assessed through network analysis and decision analysis methods. The network analysis methods are used to assess the impact of damaged components on the system functionality while various factors that influence risk reduction decisions are integrated using decision analysis methods.; While the concepts of the methodology are applicable to lifeline systems in general, the details are developed for highway systems subjected to earthquakes. The details of the methodology are discussed in applications to prioritization of bridges for seismic retrofitting, and emergency response planning and management activities.; As part of the vulnerability assessment for highway systems, new bridge classes and damage states are defined. An expert system is developed for classification of bridges (ESCOB). The importance criterion is assessed through a decision model using multiattribute utility theory. The impact of bridge functionality on the system performance is introduced as part of the importance assessment. Algorithms for connectivity analysis for emergency response (CAFER) and serviceability analysis are developed and are used to determine accessibility of the disaster areas, available routes to the disaster areas, travel time delays and socioeconomic impacts.; The methodology is implemented in a geographic information system (GIS). An interface is developed to use GIS concurrently with a land use transportation system (LUTS). The application of the methods are illustrated by several case studies for Palo Alto and Northridge, California areas.
機譯：本文提出了一種為生命線系統(tǒng)開發(fā)的風險評估方法，該方法可作為決策過程中的工具：（i）改造系統(tǒng)中的關鍵結(jié)構(gòu)，以作為減災前的手段；（ii）災前應急響應計劃，以及（iii）緊急應變行動。目的是協(xié)助作出這樣的決定，以最大程度地減少由于自然或人為危險造成的損害而造成的生命和財產(chǎn)損失。該方法基于對系統(tǒng)組件的脆弱性和重要性評估。危害分析，結(jié)構(gòu)分類方案和脆性分析用于評估每個組件的脆弱性。組件的重要性通過網(wǎng)絡分析和決策分析方法進行評估。網(wǎng)絡分析方法用于評估受損組件對系統(tǒng)功能的影響，而使用決策分析方法將影響風險降低決策的各種因素整合在一起。雖然該方法的概念總體上適用于生命線系統(tǒng)，但針對遭受地震的公路系統(tǒng)卻開發(fā)了詳細信息。該方法的詳細內(nèi)容將在橋梁抗震加固的優(yōu)先級應用以及應急響應計劃和管理活動中進行討論。作為公路系統(tǒng)脆弱性評估的一部分，定義了新的橋梁等級和損壞狀態(tài)。開發(fā)了用于橋梁分類的專家系統(tǒng)（ESCOB）。重要性標準是使用多屬性效用理論通過決策模型進行評估的。重要性評估的一部分介紹了橋接功能對系統(tǒng)性能的影響。開發(fā)了用于應急響應的連通性分析（CAFER）和可服務性分析的算法，用于確定災區(qū)的可及性，到達災區(qū)的可用路線，旅行時間延遲和社會經(jīng)濟影響。該方法在地理信息系統(tǒng)（GIS）中實現(xiàn)。開發(fā)了一個接口，以與土地使用運輸系統(tǒng)（LUTS）同時使用GIS。在加利福尼亞州帕洛阿爾托和諾斯里奇的一些案例研究中說明了該方法的應用。

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  • 作者

    Basoz, Nesrin Isil.;

  • 作者單位

    Stanford University.;

  • 授予單位 Stanford University.;
  • 學科 Engineering Civil.; Transportation.
  • 學位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 1996
  • 頁碼 358 p.
  • 總頁數(shù) 358
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文語種 eng
  • 中圖分類 建筑科學;綜合運輸;
  • 關鍵詞

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