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首頁> 外文學位 >Estimating injury severity and cost in two-vehicle crashes.
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Estimating injury severity and cost in two-vehicle crashes.

機譯：估算兩車相撞的傷害嚴重程度和成本。

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摘要

This dissertation performs a comprehensive analysis of the effect of different environmental, demographic and vehicle variables on the severity of two-vehicle crashes. The limitations associated with previous studies have been addressed by using a large crash database, properly defining the independent variables, using appropriate statistical models, and by considering the effect of factors normally unaccounted for such as crash type, impact speed, and weight or height incompatibilities between the two vehicles.;The use of multinomial logit models at the individual occupant and crash levels provides the flexibility to evaluate variables that have opposing effects at different injury levels (such as airbags). Alternative formulations with interaction terms and with instrumental variables are included. An analysis of marginal probabilities and costs is also provided, which is particularly useful when discussing potential safety treatments with transportation officials, politicians and other decision makers.;The findings from the different models are consistent and suggest that the type of crash has a great impact on severity. Age is the most significant demographic variable, with children and older occupants being least and most likely to be injured, respectively. Behavior also seems to be critical, as the use of seatbelts greatly decreases occupant injuries. Heavier vehicles increase the safety of its occupants but decrease the safety of occupants of the other vehicle. The effect of vehicle type is not as significant as weight, with the exception of pickups, which are both more crashworthy and more aggressive than passenger cars. Further research is needed on the effects of airbags and impaired driving, as the analyses conducted have been inconclusive.
機譯：本文對不同環(huán)境，人口統(tǒng)計學和車輛變量對兩車碰撞嚴重程度的影響進行了綜合分析。通過使用大型碰撞數(shù)據(jù)庫，正確定義自變量，使用適當?shù)慕y(tǒng)計模型以及考慮通常無法解釋的因素（例如碰撞類型，撞擊速度以及重量或高度不兼容）的影響，可以解決與先前研究相關的局限性在各個乘員和碰撞級別上使用多項式logit模型，可以靈活地評估在不同傷害級別（例如安全氣囊）產(chǎn)生相反影響的變量。包括具有交互作用術語和工具變量的替代配方。還提供了邊際概率和成本的分析，在與運輸官員，政客和其他決策者討論潛在的安全措施時特別有用;;不同模型的發(fā)現(xiàn)是一致的，并表明碰撞的類型具有重大影響在嚴重性上。年齡是最重要的人口統(tǒng)計學變量，兒童和較大的乘員分別是受傷最少和最可能受傷的人群。行為似乎也很關鍵，因為使用安全帶可以大大減少乘員受傷。較重的車輛增加了其乘員的安全性，但降低了另一輛車輛的乘員的安全性。車輛類型的影響不如重量重要，皮卡除外，皮卡比乘用車更耐撞，而且更具侵略性。由于進行的分析尚無定論，因此需要進一步研究安全氣囊和駕駛不便的影響。

著錄項

  • 作者

    Angel, Alejandro.;

  • 作者單位

    The University of Arizona.;

  • 授予單位 The University of Arizona.;
  • 學科 Engineering Civil.;Transportation.
  • 學位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2008
  • 頁碼 230 p.
  • 總頁數(shù) 230
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文語種 eng
  • 中圖分類 建筑科學;綜合運輸;
  • 關鍵詞

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